Over enthusiastic jubilance, for once I’ve never been closer, is this the WHAT IF coming true! Not too often in our life times does that feeling of unadulterated joy peak its head around the corner and pop into your life. Can I cherish the moment? Should I indulge in the wafty aroma of life to its fullest? No, it very seldom happens and it has always been that carrot dangling in front, I’ve never seemed to be able to get to. So what if this is the real deal? Fire works, cannons, orchestra’s and a stadium size choir singing Hallelujah, you finally made it before you hit the pearly gates.
We’ve been given more clues to this gravy train than you can shake a stick at. I’ve read more in this year than I’ve read in my lifetime, unfortunately I can’t recall worth a darn when I need to. So that brings me to where I’ve been half my life, I can dream can’t I?
The real reason I wrote this was to look at another side, failure. What’s the probability a start up can succeed? The odds we have a winner are stacked against us at 30 in 100 make it. History has pretty well defined that startups are going to fail. So we must consider that possibility, as remote as it may seem to us following this company.
The average is within 10 years only 30% of the companies are still around, that’s an astonishing failure rate! 20% gone by the first year another 15% the second, 10% the third and another ~ 10% by the fourth year. So after 4 years almost 60% of the startups are history and over the next 6 years another 10 % vaporize. But how many of those were bought out, merged, or sold for a profit? We don’t know, so maybe it’s not as gloomy as it looks, but it still doesn’t look good.
So ask yourself, if it were to happen were would you be? Overextended should not be one of the answers. At the minimum you should be no worse then you are now at paying your bills. This is a speculative stock even if it is very promising. So if it goes belly up you should be able to keep your head above water, just like yesterday. Does it get any worse? Probably not now. One year ago it was a different story. It was totally speculative with everything being based on pretty much a promise they would be able to do as they proposed in the business plan. Are they still speculative, as of this week the answer is still yes. In a couple weeks if our suppositions are on the money based on our puzzle piecing, less speculative is an understatement. Have we set our bar too high with our expectation for profit. Most likely. So if we don’t actually make it the full mile and only make it to an average size solar and Quantum dot company stock price or worse, we only get ¼ the way, is that reason to be disappointed? Yes and no, Yes because we set the bar too high on our expectations of success and no because we still made money. However you didn’t make any money if you didn’t sell any of your shares. Nothing goes straight up except Dell 1990 – 2000, DDRX, GMCR. So set your exit limit for a % of your shares and let the rest ride. I’m sure some of the Krispy Kream, ENRON, Citigroup, GM share holders wish they had done just that.
With that being said, how concerned should you be for success and company growth? What makes QMC and Solterra so different from other companies?
IMO the economics associated with the technology, Managements resilience and drive and the public NEED for the service and products to be offered. They are not in just a single industry; their product crosses the gamut into a multitude of industry uses.
The company already has an equal 50/50 chance of being ahead simply from the fact there are two companies, a quantum dot company and a solar cell company. How many companies reduce your chance of failure by 50% from the get go?
One of the most compelling and least credible reason is scifi. Think of every cartoon adventure and gadget you can remember as a kid growing up. They all have come to reality in some form or another. Spaceships, 2 way wrist radio/tv, lasers… This is the start of the next generation of nano technology gadgets,that QMC and Solterra will be major suppliers of product and like Bill Gates & Microsoft first to commercialize home computers, IBM computers, Hertz auto rentals, McDonalds fast food, Amazon discount on line retailer – they were the market leaders for many years during their growth development; and everyone of them came out of nowhere. Just like Quantum Materials Corp and Solterra Renewable Technologies, Inc. are coming out of nowhere, I’m telling you this is the somewhere you want to be for the future.
So is it really over enthusiastic jubilance? Not until the dream is reality!